Monday, January 8, 2007

Voda's at the doorstep

Looks like the battle for Hutch Essar is being coordinated out of the United Kingdom. That's because while Vodafone is based out of Newbury, the Hinduja brothers are in London.
The big question is how many partners will Voda bring to the table.
I guess, Voda finally realised that there is no way that it can get a higher stake in Bharti Airtel. Globally Voda has a controlling stake in most markets. So much so, it has a 100% stake in 15 of the 27 markets it operates in. But it has yet to make a mark in two of the biggest mobile markets. It has 10% in Bharti Airtel and only a 3.3% share in China Mobile. It pulled out of the Japanese operations in 2005. So, out of the four biggest mobile telecom markets, Voda is there only in the United States.
But, irrespective of what Vodafone wants, under DOT norms it can have a maximum of 74% equity in the venture. The rest has to come from Indian investors. Going by that, Vodafone could pick up 51% in the venture while letting Essar increase its stake to 49%. That's what Essar has been wanting to do for a long time. But, that could lead to the next round of battles with Essar, something that Hutchison has had to face for awhile.
Also, Vodafone could get a lot of support from Bharti Airtel. That's because Vodafone will be just as big as Hutch Essar is now. However, if Reliance Communications picks up Hutch Essar the competition could simply overwhelm it. There is talk that Bharti Airtel could even agree to an infrastructure sharing arrangement with Vodafone.
Similarly, the Hindujas are flush with cash. They had also operated the Gujarat licence, Fascel before selling to Hutchison. It had only recently sold its 5.11% stake in Hutch Essar for $ 450 million.
With the focus shifting to Vodafone, the pressure is beginning to tell on Reliance Communications, the Mumbai based telco that is looking to make it to the top of the Indian mobile sweepstakes. if newspaper reports are to be believed, it is willing to pick up a 10% stake in Hutch Essar. However, that does nothing for Anil Ambani, who is looking to operate and control a nation-wide GSM network.
It's time for Arun Sarin-headed Vodafone to flex its muscles. After all his team is checking out on the intricacies of Indian law with the babus in Sanchar Bhawan.

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