Thursday, April 26, 2007

Maran's 3G googly

Communications minister Dayanidhi Maran has fired the latest salvo in the battle for 3g spectrum. By allowing international players to bid for 3G spectrum, Maran has turned the tables on the existing mobile operators. That means the big mobile operators can plonk in the cash and get spectrum while Indian operators could be left salivating for spectrum.

However, like all things Indian, it will not be as simple as it seems. That's because the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) and the Association of Unified Telecom Service Providers of India (AUSPI) have joined hands to fight the phoren hand. After all, the existing operators have already invested a lot of money on the ground to make mobile telephony what it is today.

Second, with the big players coming, Indian operators will need to pay a much higher fee to get the spectrum. Going by the initial TRAI recommendations, a pan-India 3G licence would come for a base price of Rs 1130 crore. But, this googly could spoil their balance sheets for a long time to come.

Also, none of the global players is expected to go deep into the country. They will restrict themselves to the big cities.

That leaves a lot of questions unanswered.

# What happens if Indian operators do not manage to get 3G spectrum?
# Is that the end of the road for these players?
# Will there be enough takers for 3G services in India?
# Can an existing operator join hands with an international operator to start 3G services as a separate service?
# Is this the formal entry of MVNO services in India?

I hope to clarify most of these over the next couple of days.

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