If one has to believe the communications ministry then we could have 12 providers of 3G services. Each of them will have 5 MHz of spectrum. Nowhere in the world are there so many 3G operators. While Australia has six, the UK has five. If this happens then all the big 2G operators will be in a position to get spectrum . Add to that international service providers who are looking to get a slice of the India action.
But in most other countries, operators get a minimum of 15 MHz at one go. It does not augur too well for 3G services. What is likely to happen is that once the global players get 3G spectrum, they will look to acquire operators who have 2G spectrum already. That way, they become full-scale operators. It is also a great way for some of the new licencees to exit. But for that to happen, the government must go ahead and amend the M&A guidelines that insist on a three-year moratorium. If that gets reduced, we could see a re-alignment of the Indian telecom space.
For now, it is still in the realm of speculation. But do not be too surprised if things change rapidly. After all the Left is out of contention. This is just the right time to push through a load of reforms in the sector.
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