Well, the June subscriber numbers are in--all of 8.94 million new mobile users. So in the first half of 2008, India has added 53.24 million new mobile subscribers. That leads to 286.86 million mobile subscribers. At this rate there should be 300 million mobile subscribers at the end of August.
Can we sustain this kind of growth? As things stand, we can do this through 2009 and into 2010. That is when things should start to slowdown. By then there will be 500 million plus mobile subscribers. It would mean a mobile penetration level of 45-50%. That's almost double of the current 24.94%. I do not think that India will overtake China in mobile subscribers.
China has three people per family as opposed to India's five. At two phone per family (for both parents) that works to a penetration level of 66.67%. India will settle at a penetration of 50%. Unless there is a sea change in the people's income it is unlikely to go much beyond that number.
But telecom industry officials argue that it is possible to touch a 75% penetration. For that to happen, we need income levels to rise sharply in the low income and poor India. That remains to be seen. But a 600 million subscriber base is quite achievable. Anything after that will be a bonus.
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