I was at GSM> 3G in Mumbai. Not surprisingly, the focus was on what else but 3G.
Where is 3G headed? Forget emerging markets, 3G has yet to really happen in Europe.
As far as Indian operators are concerned, they are still waiting for spectrum. The biggest mobile market, China too does not have 3G as yet. That's because the Chinese government is looking at starting 3G services on an entirely new standard, the TD-SCDMA (Time Division-Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access). It believes that there is no reason for it to to follow the western standard--WCDMA. Maybe.
That leaves just Europe where 3G is happening. Even within Europe, 3G is still being used as a voice service as opposed to a data service. According to a survey, in the UK, 49% of 3G subscribers did not use their mobile phone even once for video telephony. In Europe, only Italy has 10% of its subscribers on 3G. Other nations fall in the 1-5% range. Only Japan has over 10% of its mobile subscribers using 3G, as opposed to possessing a 3G enabled handset.
So where does that leave 3G in India?
It's definitely going to take a long, long time before Indian subscribers actually start using 3G services. Use of 3G for data services could take even longer. That will depend on how services are priced. That in turn depends on how the bidding for spectrum goes. If prices for spectrum go through the roof, then you can simply forget all about people using high-cost 3G services in India. The other issue is the cost of 3G enabled mobile phones. In a market that prefers $ 20 handsets, it will take a while before a dent can be made in high-end phones.
But despite all the negatives on 3G, operators in emerging markets have launched 3G services. The list includes Telkomsel (Indonesia), Globe (Philippines) and Dialog (Sri Lanka).
What is clearly evident is that the big winners in 3G are the vendors more than the operators. After all, people end up buying high-end handsets with a plethora of features that they never, ever use. So even if the operators lose out, the vendors are raking it in.
1 comment:
It is hardly surprisingly that 3G services havent taken off. I am one of those who looks upon sending a simple text message as a chore. And as phones become more and more advanced I have seen a lot of people use it for voice and nothing else. Still, there is a market for these services. Some people might want to see only stock reports on their mobile phones, while others would be interested in only mapping services. What I am unsure about is whether the market is as big as was originally forecast.
Post a Comment